Amid fast-depleting forex reserves, the Finance Ministry on Wednesday signalled that it was not in favour of selling the dollar to defend any particular level of the rupee. "Let it (rupee) reach whatever levels it has to reach. We can't fritter away reserves on defending some artificial, imaginary rate of exchange," a senior finance ministry official told Business Standard. Forex reserves declined to a near two-year low of $545.65 billion as on September 16, down $85.88 billion from the level that existed on February 25, a day after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The rupee on Friday bounced back 32 paise to close at 64.74 against the American currency on fresh selling of dollar.
The broader Nifty also succumbed to the pressure before recovering to close lower by 6.35 points, or 0.07 per cent at 8,693.05
'Rate cut should reiterate RBI's commitment in providing confidence to consumers and small business.'
Industrial production and inflation data, quarterly earnings from IT majors and global trends would drive the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of the rupee and global crude oil prices would also dictate terms in the market, they added. Equity markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Dr Baba Saheb Ambedkar Jayanti'.
Seven consecutive sessions of decline in the equity market has eroded the wealth of investors by a whopping Rs 10.42 lakh crore and the benchmark Sensex has tumbled more than 2,000 points during this period. Concerns over more rate hikes by developed economies, weak global equity markets and fresh foreign fund outflows from the domestic market have dented investor sentiments. On Monday, the BSE Sensex dropped 175.58 points or 0.30 per cent to end at 59,288.35 points, marking a decline for seven straight trading sessions.
Trading in the equity market this week will be highly influenced by a host of important triggers, with quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS, Wipro, and domestic inflation and IIP data taking the centre stage in dictating the movement in equities, analysts said. Besides, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors will also drive markets. "We are approaching the first quarter earnings season, with HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro set to report their earnings this week.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.45/46 per dollar, weaker from Wednesday's 61.35/36.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
The rupee had lost 21 paise on Tuesday's trade.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
A rate cut will bring positive sentiment around the Budget.
'The Indian economy and the Indian financial sector today remain resilient and much better placed.'
'Hope they don't tinker around with capital gains tax in any way.'
Global rating agency S&P on Tuesday said even though the US and the Euro zone are headed to recession, India is unlikely to face the impact given the "not so coupled" nature of its economy with the global economy. "Indian economy is a lot decoupled from the global economy than we normally think of, given its large domestic demand, even though you (India) are a net importer of energy. "But you have enough forex reserves on one hand and your companies have managed to maintain healthy balance sheets," Paul F Gruenwald, S&P global chief economist and managing director, told reporters in Mumbai.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at over 7 per cent in the current fiscal year, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday, while observing that the growth rate should sustain next year too provided the forthcoming Budget does not have any negative surprises. Panagariya further said recessionary fears have been around for a while but so far neither the US nor the EU has gone into recession. "From the viewpoint of India, in terms of headwinds originating abroad, the worst is probably behind us," he told PTI.
The Sensex opened with a bang at 15,326 - up 493 points - on positive cues from the global markets after the US Federel Bank cut interest rates by 75 basis points. The index touched a high of 15,467 in opening trades. The index thus ended the holiday -shortened week with a loss of 766 points. The markets are closed on Thursday and Friday. The NSE Nifty touched a high of 4,718, but settled with a gain of 41 points at 4,574. The index was down 172 points for the week.
Trading in the domestic stock market would be influenced by trends in the global equities, macroeconomic data and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Markets may face volatile trends on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday.
Among the Sensex firms, HCL Technologies, Tata Motors, Hindustan Unilever, NTPC, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Mahindra & Mahindra were the major gainers. Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Asian Paints were the laggards.
Domestic equity investors' wealth eroded by more than Rs 4.43 lakh crore on Monday as fears of a financial contagion triggered by one of the biggest bank failures in the US roiled market sentiments. After a strong opening, Indian stocks went into a tailspin with the benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex tumbling nearly 900 points to close at 58,237.85 points -- sliding for the third straight trading session. The NSE Nifty too declined 258.60 points to end at 17,154.30 points.
Led by the weak trend in the broader market, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies plunged Rs 1,65,437.91 crore to Rs 1,38,54,439.41 crore.
'Gold prices thrive on volatility and more so when the stock markets trend downward.'
The Lok Sabha elections in 2024 are not a consideration when it comes to monetary policymaking, said Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das to underscore the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation. "It's not possible for me to comment what we do in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee), but one thing I can tell and I would like to make it very clear-that the fact of elections coming up in 2024 is not a factor at all so far as monetary policymaking is concerned. "Monetary policymaking is for checking (and) controlling inflation," Das said at the Business Standard, BFSI Insight Summit.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday defended the Reserve Bank's handling of the price situation, saying acting prematurely on inflation would have exerted a heavy cost on the economy and citizens. Acknowledging that the inflation target has been missed, Das said the RBI decided to support the economy by not introducing a rate hike in face of a spike in inflation. "We prevented a 'complete collapse of the economy' by keeping rates lower and stayed away from premature tightening," Das said speaking at the annual FIBAC conference of bankers in Mumbai.
Asia has opened largely in the green ahead of a raft of Chinese data due during the day.
Equity benchmark index Sensex buckled under selling pressure for the second straight session to close below the 65k mark on Friday, as investors offloaded IT, teck and metal stocks amid a bearish global trend. Besides, fresh foreign fund outflows also hit investor sentiments, traders said. In a volatile trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 202.36 points or 0.31 per cent to settle at 64,948.66.
The rhetoric that we are fed daily needs to be measured against performance and the facts. That is not happening, points out Aakar Patel.
Wipro, Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Technologies were among the other major winners. Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
Yellen is currently Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Rising productivity and product diversification ensured high export growth in the past.
With the international markets facing uncertainty after Russia invaded Ukraine and Western nations retaliated with sanctions, Indian companies are putting their international fundraising plans on hold as they wait for the markets to recover. Bankers said apart from the geopolitical crisis, international rates are hardening in anticipation of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve to control rising prices in the US. The Ukraine situation has implications for the market. In such a situation, international investors try to shift to safe haven assets by exiting from emerging markets.
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The partially convertible rupee closed at 63.37/38 per dollar compared with 62.83/84 on Monday. The unit dropped 0.85 per cent on the day, its biggest single-day fall in two weeks.
Among Sensex shares, Bajaj Finserv fell the most by 4.08 per cent. Bajaj Finance declined by 3.01 per cent, Tata Steel by 2.2 per cent, Wipro by 2.09 per cent, Tata Motors by 1.96 per cent, IndusInd Bank by 1.9 per cent, SBI by 1.75 per cent, Tech Mahindra by 1.66 per cent and HCL Tech by 1.2 per cent. TCS, Infosys, Power Grid, Maruti, Reliance, HDFC twins, L&T, M&M, NTPC and Ultratech Cement were also among the losers.
'If you are invested in mid-cap and small-cap stocks, even if you are making losses right now, it is better to sell them now and sit on cash.'
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Tuesday termed the steep fall in the stock market as a correction triggered by factors, including a fall in metal prices.
Continuing its heavy selling spree for the eighth consecutive month, foreign investors pulled out nearly Rs 40,000 crore from the Indian equity market in May on fears of an aggressive rate hike by US Federal Reserve that dented investor sentiments. With this, net outflow by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities reached at Rs 1.69 lakh crore so far in 2022, data with depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI flows will remain volatile in the emerging markets on account of rising geo-political risk, rising inflation, tightening of monetary policy by central banks, among others, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said.
ITC, Sun Pharma, Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Wipro, Infosys, HUL, Bharti Airtel and Reliance were among the major losers. Kotak Bank rose the most by 1.59 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv. L&T, SBI, TCS and HDFC Bank also closed higher.
India's foreign exchange reserves declined by a whopping $4.343 billion to $367.646 billion.
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